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Clinton take California. McCain/Romney neck in neck.


CofCC.org News Team

Exit polls shows Clinton will win California by a sizable margin, while McCain and Romney are neck in neck. However, new rules governing California’s delegates may mean that the 2nd place finishers could still get a substantial share. Each of California’s congressional delegates controls an even share. Delegates are said to be awarded by congressional district. California constitutes 11% of all Democratic delegates and 7% of Republican delegates. If the delegates split fairly evenly it won’t give any one candidate a major advantage.

Of the 21 states with Republican contests, only Alaska has not reported any results. Of the 22 Democratic contests, only Alaska and New Mexico have not reported any results.

A New Mexico exit poll shows surprising results. With virtually no blacks in the state, Obama is predicted to win the White vote and Clinton is predicted to win the Hispanic vote. Obama is expected to win overall.

With Alaska as an unknown, Obama is expected to win 11 states and Clinton 10. However Clinton won New York and New Jersey, which are major winner take all states.

Romney should win 6 states, split California with McCain, and most likely win Alaska. Huckabee should finish 1st in Georgia, Alabama, West Virgina, Tennessee, and Arkansas.

McCain will take 8 or 9 depending on how California goes. McCain will likely lead in delegates since he won New York and New Jersey.

For the first time in decades the primary will continue to be hotly contested on both side after “Super Tuesday.” Delegate rich Ohio and Texas will remain to cast decisive votes. Romney could do well in Cincinnati, Toledo, and Cleveland winning Ohio. Obama will almost surely lose Texas. It has an average percentage of blacks and it is heavily Hispanic, who have been voting for Hillary. Ohio is 13% black, which falls in the range of states that Clinton wins big.