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Is Republican Nomination Over?


CofCC.org Continuous Election 2008 Coverage

The Republican nomination is nearly sealed for McCain. Romney and McCain have been working on a deal which has resulted in some kind of formal agreement. Romney is expected to formally bow out and endorse McCain today. Romney’s delegate will enter the convention uncommitted, with a request by Romney to vote for McCain.

This means that McCain’s nomination is almost sealed.  Huckabee would have to win most of the delegates left and get Romney’s delegates to split in order to win the nomination now.

Huckabee is leaving the campaign trail for the weekend. Huckabee has shocked some of supporters by announcing that he will be leaving the campaign trail to make a paid speech in the Cayman Island. Huckabee will leave Friday and return Sunday. Campaign aids claim that the speech was booked six months ago and in no way should be interpreted as a sign that Huckabee is folding.

Republicans have sixteen states left. Democrats have 15 states plus Puerto Rico. Based on Demographics, Obama is guaranteed to win in Puerto Rico, North Carolina, Mississippi. Montana, South Dakota, and Oregon should go Obama as well. Texas is a guaranteed victory for Clinton which is a big state and will help Clinton keep Obama in check. Clinton should also get Ohio, the second biggest state left. Clinton is hoping to win Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. If she does, she may get enough delegates to win and avoid a battle at the Democratic convention.

The Democratic nomination process will drag on until at least April 22nd. If Obama wins Pennsylvania or Wisconsin it will drag on for months longer, most likely resulting in a split convention and the ultimate loser vowing that they were cheated.