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Kansas Republican Caucus Results.


CofCC.org News Team

Does Huckabee have a chance?

(by Kyle Rogers)

The big question on all the pundits and talk radio host’s minds now is “does Huckabee have a chance, or is it a pipe dream for him to stay in.” While many talk radio hosts don’t like Huckabee’s liberal record, they still find him preferable to McCain. While McCain has a huge lead, exit polls show he has lost the vote of self-described “conservatives” in every single state, even Arizona. McCain tends to win among people described as moderates, liberals, and Hispanics. Meanwhile, most exit polls show a majority of Republican voters describe themselves as “conservative,” but their vote is usually split between Huckabee and Romney. For this reason, McCain can’t take it for granted that he is going to win. Romney “suspension” has changed a lot of factors.

With Romney out of the way, Huckabee won the Kansas caucus with 60%. This is a far higher percentage of the vote than Huckabee has received in any other caucus or any primary except for Arkansas. Ron Paul received 11%, though he has always performed better in caucuses than primaries. Most of Huckabees wins have been by slim margins, but with Romney gone he has the opportunity for big margin wins now.

Romney’s “suspension” of his campaign will allow Huckabee to win many of the states left and surge in delegates. Texas, Louisiana, North Carolina, Kentucky, and South Dakota should be easy victories for Huckabee with Romney out of the way. However, he still has little chance of catching up with McCain at this point. Huckabee would have to win just about all of the remaining 16 contests (two of which are going on right now).

Huckabee is a favorite in the Louisiana primary, which is also today.

Obama is practically guaranteed victory in Louisiana with it’s high percentage of blacks, and he should perform well in the Nebraska Caucus, with that states tint black population. As we’ve stated before, Obama does great in states that have a black population either much lower or much higher than the national average. In states were the percentage of blacks is average, or there are high numbers of Hispanic, Clinton tends to win big.

A look at some of the states left in the Republican nomination process. Normally irrelevant late states like Ohio and Pennsylvania may be hotly contested battle grounds for both McCain/Huckabee and Clinton/Obama.


(Predictions by senior webmaster Kyle Rogers, delegate totals are Republican delegates. Democrat delegate totals are not shown.)

TX: 140 delegates (likely Huckabee and Clinton winners)
OH: 88 delegates (likely Clinton win)
PA: 74 delegates (wild card for both parties)
NC: 69 delegates (likely Huckabee win, guaranteed Obama win)
VA: 63 delegates (likely Huckabee and Obama winners)
IN: 57 delegates
KY: 45 delegates (likely Huckabee win)
WI: 40 delegates
MS: 39 (guaranteed Huckabee and Obama winners)
MD: 37 delegates (guaranteed Obama win)
NM: 32 delegates (likely Clinton win)
SD: 27 delegates (likely Huckabee win)
VT: 17 delegates (likely Obama win)

Total: 728 Republican delegates out of original 2,380. If Romney were to give his current delegates to McCain, Huckabee would have to win almost every single state left, especial the big ones.

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