#NeverTrump Just Blew Its Best Chance To Stop Trump
By Hunter Wallace
Consider the following:
1.) In order to save Marco Rubio and stop Trump on March 15, over the last two weeks the anti-Trump SuperPACs spent $20.25 million dollars in negative television advertising. Trump won with 45.8 percent in Florida, 38.8 percent in Illinois, 40.2 percent in North Carolina, and (probably) 40.8 percent in Missouri. The donor class calvary came and it lit a bonfire of money to no perceivable effect.
2.) By refusing to get out of the race on March 8, Rubio probably cost Cruz two victories in North Carolina and Missouri and lots of delegates in Illinois. Thanks to Marco Rubio, Trump won a lot more delegates than he otherwise would have in Illinois, Missouri, and North Carolina, which makes it much harder for Cruz to win the nomination outright as the race shifts to the Northeast and West Coast.
3.) In order to stop Trump, the Rubio people bought into the #NeverTrump movement and apparently voted for Cruz on March 8, which sent their own candidate into a death spiral in the week leading up to the Florida primary. There is no evidence that Cruz and Kasich voters returned the favor and voted for Rubio in Florida who both got EXACTLY their Real Clear Politics polling averages in Florida. #NeverTrump was a psy op by the Cruz forces which persuaded Rubio supporters to commit political suicide.
4.) As we expected, John Kasich has emerged from March 15 as the president of Ohio. The Rubio supporters, who were scammed by Cruz, will now probably move over to Kasich. Even though Kasich has no path to win the nomination, he will stay in the race as a spoiler and throw the winner-take-all and winner-take-most states to Trump.
5.) Cruz’s strategy was to have a two man race with Trump after March 15. Instead, he has a three man race headed to the Midwest and Northeast where the president of Ohio is likely to perform much better. We don’t get to Nebraska or Indiana until early May. Arizona and Utah vote next Tuesday. Kasich isn’t getting out which means that Trump is now poised for victory in winner-take-all Arizona. Wisconsin, which votes on April 5, is a winner-take-all open primary. Then we go to New York.
6.) If we had a two man race with Cruz in winner-take-all Arizona and Wisconsin, that would be a serious cause for alarm, but after last night we don’t have to worry about that because Kasich will hang around until at least April 26 when Pennsylvania and the Mid-Atlantic states vote. Instead, Cruz didn’t win anything last night and after winning Utah next week is unlikely to win anything until Nebraska on May 10.
7.) As we head through the Northeast in April, it is easy to see the #CruzCrew sinking with no chance of victory. We might end up with a two man race with Kasich by the time we get to the remaining Cruz states in the Far West like Montana, New Mexico and South Dakota.